What Is PCM · Phase Control Model

Not what happened.
What decided it.

Phase Control Model is a structural analytics framework for T20 cricket. It measures which team controlled each phase of a match — not just who scored more, but when and how structural dominance was built and lost. PCM tells you the story the scorecard cannot.

16,459 Innings computed
9 Competitions
91% Predictive accuracy · IPL 2026
2008–2026 Coverage

The problem with scorecards

A cricket scorecard tells you the final state of a match. Runs. Wickets. Strike rates. It describes what happened after control was decided — not when or how control was built or broken. Two teams can finish with similar scores and tell completely different structural stories. The team that controlled every phase might have lost on a single delivery in the final over. The scorecard doesn't tell you that.

Commentary describes moments. Statistics aggregate outcomes. Win probability models tell you odds. None of it explains structural control — which team was actually winning before the result became obvious, and which phase of the match decided it.

"The scorecard tells you what happened. PCM tells you what decided it."

How PCM works

PCM breaks every T20 innings into four structural phases. Each phase is scored independently for batting and bowling. The scores are weighted by their structural importance. The result is a single number — the PCM Total — that measures how much structural control each team held across the full match.

The Four Phases

Phase 1
Entry Velocity
Overs 1–6 · Powerplay
22%
Powerplay control. Sets the structural platform for the innings. The phase where batting teams establish position and bowling teams look to create pressure early.
Phase 2
Stability Window
Overs 7–12 · Middle overs
23%
The middle overs. The SW winner takes the match in over 90% of games. The phase where structural control is consolidated or surrendered before the slog begins.
Phase 3 · Decisive
Acceleration Band
Overs 13–16 · Slog overs
25% ↑
The highest-weight phase. The game-breaking overs. IPL 2026's decisive window — where structural leads are built beyond recovery and where most matches are actually decided.
Phase 4
Closure Efficiency
Overs 17–20 · Death overs
20%
Death overs execution. Finishing under pressure — batting and bowling. The phase where structural leads are converted or structural deficits become insurmountable.

The Formula

PCM Total = (Bat PCM + Bowl PCM) ÷ 2
Each team receives a batting PCM and a bowling PCM per innings. The PCM Total is the average — measuring overall structural control across both roles.

The team with the higher PCM Total structurally controlled the match. This is not a prediction model. It is a post-innings measurement of actual phase control based on ball-by-ball data.

PCM Labels

Every match is classified by the winning team's PCM Total:

LabelPCM RangeWhat It Means
DOMINANT67+ (V2) · 60+ (V1)One team controlled every phase. The result was never in doubt structurally.
CONTROLLED56–66 (V2) · 50–59 (V1)Clear structural advantage. The winning team held phase control throughout.
CONTESTED44–55 (V2) · 40–49 (V1)Both teams held phases. The match was decided by marginal structural control.
UNCONTROLLEDBelow 44 (V2) · Below 40 (V1)Structural chaos. Neither team established phase control. Result could go either way.

V1 labels apply to matches 1–13 · V2 labels apply from match 14 · IPL 2026

PCM vs traditional analytics

The closest analogy in sport is xG — Expected Goals — in football. xG tells you which team created better chances, not just who scored. PCM tells you which team controlled more phases, not just who scored more runs.

Traditional cricket stats
Tell you the outcome of each ball, each over, each innings. Descriptive. Backward-looking. The scorecard is the end product.
Phase Control Model
Tells you the structural story of how control was built or lost, phase by phase. Explanatory. Tells you why the match went the way it did.

PCM is not a prediction model. It does not tell you who will win. It tells you, after the match, which team was structurally in control and when that control was established. The higher PCM team wins 91% of IPL 2026 matches — not because PCM predicts results, but because structural control and match outcomes are deeply correlated.

The dataset

PCM has been computed across 16,459 innings spanning 9 major T20 competitions from 2008 to 2026. Every innings is scored across all four phases using the same methodology. No comparable structural dataset exists in public cricket analytics.

CompetitionCoverageInnings
IPL2008–20262,304
T20I Men2008–20263,359
T20I Women2008–20261,911
BBL2011–20261,294
CPL2013–2025796
PSL2016–2025632
T20 World Cup2007–2024450
WPL2023–2026174
Women T20WC2014–2024268

Who built PCM

PCM was created by Rajarshi Gupta — a senior cricket journalist with nearly 20 years of experience across ESPN STAR Sports, Cricbuzz, NDTV Sports, India Today, and InsideSport. He built the methodology, data architecture, computation engine, and consumer application independently, with no formal technical background.

PCM is the foundation product of The Insight Press — an editorial intelligence company building the intelligence layer for cricket storytelling. The second product is LeDe, a PCM-powered editorial CMS for sports newsrooms currently in development.

PCM is also the data engine behind What The Scorecard Missed (WTSM) — an editorial platform and Substack newsletter covering cricket structurally.

"PCM is not just a number. It is a new language for understanding cricket — and we are teaching machines to speak it."

Explore PCM

The live PCM app covers every IPL 2026 match with structural analysis, team phase profiles, season patterns, and an AI-powered insights engine querying 16,459 innings across 9 competitions.

Open the PCM app →

For editorial analysis and the WTSM newsletter: whatthescorecardmissed.substack.com

For partnership and media inquiries: guptrajarshi@gmail.com